California could be struck by another major earthquake within a week, scientists have said, after the region was rocked violently last week by a 6.4 magnitude followed by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake the next day.
According to local earthquake experts, there is currently a one-in-10 chance of another quake with magnitude 7.0 or higher hitting California’s southern region within the next week.
Speaking at a press conference after an intense 7.1 earthquake near Ridgecrest the evening of July 5, Caltech seismologist and a former science adviser at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Lucy Jones, said, “There’s about a 1 in 10 chance that we could have another 7 in this sequence,” the Los Angeles Times reported.
Jones added that there is more than a 50 percent chance that a quake with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher will hit Owens Valley region, while the chances of experiencing a temblor higher than last week’s stands at 8 percent or 9 percent.
“Every earthquake makes another earthquake more likely, and that’s what we’re seeing right here,” USGS Seismologist Lucy Jones says of the #EarthquakeLA pic.twitter.com/GDm77Xru4O
— TicToc by Bloomberg (@tictoc) 6 July 2019
It would be “extremely unusual” if Southern California doesn’t experience another earthquake with a magnitude higher than 5.0 over the coming week, Jones said.
“Chances are, we’re going to have more earthquakes in the next five years than we’ve had in the last five years,” she later told The Guardian.
Friday’s Ridgecrest quake was the region’s largest in nearly two decades, after the Mojave Desert was hit by a 1999 Hector Mine quake that registered at magnitude 7.1.
Early magnitude estimates of the quake wavered between 6.9 and 7.1, according to the USGS. The 1999 temblor was about 11 times more forceful than Thursday’s, the USGS said. No fatalities or major injuries were reported on July 4.
The day after Friday’s quake, up to 600 aftershocks were mapped in the region, according to the USGS, with some registering at 4.5 in magnitude.
There is also always someone who claims they know a big quake is coming. This is not a scientific assessment.
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) 7 July 2019
“In California, we expect to have a magnitude 7 once every 10 to 20 years, and the last one was 20 years ago,” Jones told the Los Angeles Times. “Think of this as a return to what California is supposed to be doing.”
“The fault is growing,” Jones said, explaining that currently, it is likely to be 25 to 30 miles long. “We ruptured a piece in the first earthquake, we ruptured a little more in the 5.4 this morning and we’re rupturing more now.”
The seismologist said that aftershocks are likely to be felt in the region for some time.
“A magnitude 7 usually has aftershocks that last for years,” she said.
But seismic activity is not likely to be triggered on the San Andreas fault as a result of the activity near Ridgecrest, Jones added.
The probabilities cited by Jones were generated by USGS scientists based on data from decades of aftershocks and seismic behavior.
Governor @GavinNewsom has requested a Presidential Emergency Declaration for direct Federal assistance for earthquakes near Ridgecrest to further support the communities impacted by the earthquakes. https://t.co/xunH2kMmiG
— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) 6 July 2019
The extent of damage from last week’s earthquakes continue to be assessed by California crews, with its governor, Gavin Newsom, declaring a state of emergency in light of possible future tremors.
“Grateful for everyone working tirelessly on the recovery effort through the night and this morning. As Californians, we always have to be prepared for the next earthquake,” Newsom posted on Twitter July 6.
The Democratic governor told reporters on July 6 that he had discussed California’s struggles with President Donald Trump, who has expressed commitment to providing federal assistance to help California in its recovery from the two earthquakes.
Newsom estimated more than $100 million in economic damages from the two major earthquakes.
“There’s no question we don’t agree on everything, but one area where there’s no politics, where we work extremely well together, is our response to emergencies,” he said
“He’s committed in the long haul, the long run, to help support the rebuilding efforts,” Newsom said of Trump.
Newsom said that he was relieved that the damage from the two quakes hadn’t been worse, and that they should alert people across the nation of the need to be prepared for natural disasters.
“It is a wake-up call for the rest of the state and other parts of the nation, frankly.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
