As a powerful winter storm bore down on them, voters in New York’s 3rd Congressional District chose a familiar face, Democrat Tom Suozzi, to serve the Long Island and Queens communities once represented by Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.)
Mr. Suozzi’s opponent, Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip, came out the loser.
“We are fighters. Yes, we lost, but it doesn’t mean we are going to end here,” Ms. Pilip said after the race was called.
Mr. Suozzi in his victory speech said, “We, you won this race because we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions”
“The answer is to bring people together,” he told a raucous crowd of supporters at Crest Hollow Country Club in Long Island.
Even before the day of the election, registered Democrats managed a stronger early voting turnout than registered Republicans, at 42 percent to 34 percent—a bad omen for conservatives hoping to boost Ms. Pilip. On Feb. 13, the polls opened at 6 a.m. and closed at 9 p.m.
The results set the tone ahead of the 2024 general election in November, which could see incumbent Democratic President Biden defending his record against Republican President Donald Trump.
But New York’s 3rd District is an unusually wealthy, urban, and historically Democrat-friendly territory that Mr. Santos first scored in an upset victory. For that reason and others, it might not be the best place to draw broader conclusions about the presidential contest and Congressional map.
A Test Case for Immigration Appeals
The special election results show how voters in at least one part of America responded to the illegal immigration crisis.
Ms. Pilip, an Ethiopian Jew, is an immigrant from both that country and from Israel, where she met her Ukrainian-American husband and served in the Israel Defense Force. She has not hesitated to make the crisis at the southern border a central theme in her campaign.
“You have the power to stop the Suozzi/Biden open borders and Sanctuary City mess,” Ms. Pilip wrote on X in the hours before the polls closed.
Days before the special election, she touted an endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council and voiced concern over a migrant tent city in Queens Village.
Republicans sought to tie the Long Island-born Mr. Suozzi to laxer immigration policy, drawing attention to a 2019 social media post in which he instructed illegal aliens on “what you can do if ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] comes knocking.”
Mr. Suozzi argued in a recent CNN appearance that Ms. Pilip’s opposition to a recent Senate border compromise means she is effectively “keeping the border open and bringing more migrants to New York.”
But in a Feb. 13 press conference, he voiced opposition to impeaching Homeland Security Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas. Ms. Pilip, by contrast, vowed to support that endeavor. Mr. Mayorkas was impeached later that day.
Democrats’ attempts to tack to the center on mass immigration suggest Republicans have an edge on the issue. But dissatisfaction with the border can’t deliver wins everywhere.
Low Turnout
The Epoch Times’ reporters observed that election-day turnout was abysmal as voters dealt with several inches of snow on the ground. Both campaigns offered rides to voting locations, some of which shut down because of the weather conditions.
“Need a ride to the polls? Be safe, click on the link below, and Team Suozzi will get you safely to and from the polls,” Mr. Suozzi posted on X.
“There’s too much at stake in this election to stay home. Team Mazi is offering free rides to voting locations,” Ms. Pilip wrote on X. Her post included a phone number and a link to her website to request a ride.
Nonetheless, polling places saw empty voting booths. For example, a gym in Woodbury had empty booths stretching to the back of the room.
But some citizens were undeterred by Mother Nature.
“I would never miss it because I really want the person I voted for to win,” Lucia Vivianni, 87, told The Epoch Times. She voted for Ms. Pilip, saying that the candidate would “bring good changes.”
Marianne Schmidt, 73, regretted not voting early.
She told The Epoch Times she had to go to the polls to cast her ballot for Mr. Suozzi because Ms. Pilip is “too much” like Mr. Santos.
House Balance
With Mr. Suozzi’s victory, the narrow GOP majority gets even narrower with 219 Republicans to the 213 Democrats in the chamber. This means Republicans can only afford to lose two votes in bills where all Democrats vote one way. This has ramifications for issues ranging from government funding to foreign assistance, especially for Ukraine and Israel in light of the Senate passing its $95.3 billion package.
House members could deploy a rarely used and seldom successful mechanism called a discharge petition. It would force a House floor vote on a measure if a majority of the lower congressional chamber signs onto the petition, thereby circumventing the Speaker, who controls what gets a vote on the floor.
The GOP cannot afford to lose more than two of its members when it comes to votes along partisan lines–one reason the GOP had to move fast to impeach Mr. Mayorkas on Feb. 13 on a 214-213 vote.
With the addition of Mr. Suozzi, the GOP will have to wait until the late spring to get a little more breathing room. That will likely come with the special elections to replace retiring Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), both of whom represent solidly Republican districts.
The narrower majority is expected to cause bigger headaches for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has come under fire from conservatives for backing measures to fund the government. This could lead to Mr. Johnson to lose the gavel like McCarthy, as it only takes one House member to put forth a motion to vacate. Mr. McCarthy’s ouster led to the House essentially shutting down until a new speaker was picked.
Expect the House GOP to target the district later this year. A rematch between Mr. Suozzi and Ms. Pilip is possible–and, after Republican Lee Zeldin’s strong performance in his losing 2022 gubernatorial bid, it looks tantalizingly like Trump country.
2024 Implications
Mr. Suozzi’s success could signal a path for moderate Democrats. The congressman belonged to the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus while in Congress. In addition, while the left wing of the Democratic Party has challenged Biden administration policy on the Israel-Hamas war, Mr. Suozzi has had strong support from the Jewish Democratic Council of America. Haaretz, a left-leaning publication in Israel, described Mr. Suozzi as “pro-Israel.” Ms. Pilip thus enjoyed less of an advantage on that issue.
Pro-Palestinian hecklers interrupted Suozzi’s victory speech in Long Island on Tuesday night. They were drowned up by chants of “Suozzi! Suozzi!”
In a Glen Cove press conference, Mr. Suozzi listed immigration, taxes, crime, and public safety among the issues “people care about” in the district. Under other circumstances, those could be strong areas for Republicans.
Yet, Mr. Santos’s expulsion and national notoriety make the special election unique. While Ms. Pilip sought to distance herself from the man she once endorsed, Mr. Suozzi continually tied her to him, repeatedly labeling his opponent “Santos 2.0” in an election day press conference. And Mr. Suozzi also represented the district for six years, improving voters’ familiarity with him.
Ms. Pilip’s background came under scrutiny for non-Santos-related reasons, too. Though she is running as a Republican, she is a registered Democrat.
“Why would you not register as a Republican if you’re going to run as a Republican?” Lt. Col. Allen West, a Republican and retired military officer, told The Epoch Times.
She has also said she will not stand with President Trump in the event he is convicted of a crime. Many other Republican candidates can be expected to align themselves with the former president.
The Cook Political Report rates the district a Republican toss-up in Congress in 2024.
A Little Win for Biden
Mr. Suozzi’s Tuesday victory could bode well for President Biden ahead of the November general election. At the very least, the outcome suggests that President Trump would not have a cakewalk in New York and other traditionally blue states.
New York’s Third District delivered for President Biden before. In 2020, he garnered well over 50 percent of the vote and bested President Trump by close to ten points. That’s in keeping with past choices by an electorate that has typically favored Democratic presidential candidates, though not usually by overwhelming margins.
But in the 2022 gubernatorial race, Republican Lee Zeldin beat Ms. Hochul by more than ten points. That, in turn, fueled speculation about whether the more conservative-leaning suburban portions of the district could give Republicans the edge–one that might be seen in similar districts across the country.
Mr. Suozzi also raised far more money than Ms. Pilip. Federal Election Commission filings show he received $4.4 million in donations from October 2023 through Jan. 24, 2024, while Ms. Pilip raised just 1.3 million during that same period.
That’s broadly in line with a national trend that spells trouble for the GOP up and down the ticket.
Last year, 2023, had the distinction of being Republicans’ worst fundraising year since 2013. While the Republican National Committee, led by Ronna Romney McDaniel, raised just $87.2 million that year, the Democratic National Committee raised $119.9 million.
Polling ahead of the contest consistently showed Mr. Suozzi winning against Ms. Pilip.
Yet, President Biden is coping with many negatives, including low approval ratings and, with the release of Robert Hur’s special counsel report, renewed fears over his mental competency.
He’s also polling behind President Trump in seven battleground states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released in January.
Michael Washburn and Juliette Fairley contributed to this report.
From The Epoch Times
