Hispanics are projected to be the largest ethnic minority of voters in the 2020 election, according to a report from the Pew Research Center.
An estimated 14 percent increase in Hispanic voters will push them to the top. This rise would bump black voters down to the second largest ethnic minority of voters.
Several polls suggest the majority of Hispanics will vote Democrat in the next election. However, the president’s rising job approval rating from Hispanics has people speculating.
Despite President Trump lost the majority of these votes in the 2016 election, but the fraction he did get helped him win swing states like Florida and Michigan—by a hair. To some, this was a surprise, but he says he knows what they want.
“You know, my poll numbers with Hispanics went way up, and they said ‘I wonder how that is. You want strong borders,'” said President Trump at the Hispanic Heritage Month reception last September. “Well, the Hispanics know better than anyone.
“You don’t want people coming into our country that are going to do harm to you, and quite frankly, you don’t want people coming into our country that are gonna take your jobs. Very simple.”
Polls from McLaughlin & Associates (pdf) show Trump’s approval rating rising since September. In December, the president received a 47 percent job approval rating from Hispanics.
Democrats Lead in Polls
Several polls, however, suggest it’s likely a Democrat will get the majority of these votes. Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.-I) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) appear to be getting the most Hispanic support so far.
To give perspective, in an antithetical speech to Trump’s policies, Biden said he didn’t believe in the “invasion of immigrants.”
“I don’t believe we’re the nation that builds walls, whips up hysteria about an invasion of immigrants that’s gonna do terrible things to us,” he said in Iowa on Jan. 30.
However, the number of Latinos who say the Democratic Party cares more about Hispanics/Latinos than the Republican Party has dropped 11 percent from 2015 to 2018, according to another study by the Pew Research Center. At a 2020 Latinos for Liberty Town Hall in New York, conservatives said the climate is changing.
“And I think Telemundo and Univision, which are huge news outlets for the Hispanic community and Latino community, they are making people ask questions,” said NYS Vice-Chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly Gabriel E. Montalvo. “‘Do we support illegal immigration? We kind of came here, we picked ourselves up by our bootstraps to come here legally.'”
As for the president, Radio Host Rich Valdes said he’s making the right moves, like starting the Evangelicals for Trump coalition at a Hispanic megachurch.
“So I think Trump knows where to look for the support that he has—he’s not creating new support—he’s just rallying the support he has, and I think a lot of people are gonna be surprised,” he said.
However, Hispanics don’t only care about immigration. Studies, such as one done by Unidos US (pdf), show they’ve actually prioritized jobs and the economy. President Trump plans to cover this ground at his State of the Union address on Feb. 3.