Something big is brewing on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea may launch its sixth nuclear test. South Korea and Japan are on guard. The United States has sent the Carl Vinson Strike Group to the region. China has reportedly sent 150,000 troops to the North Korean border.
U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have talked about North Korea and its weapons programs. They appeared to reach an agreement. Yet it was not clear what either countries would do.
China’s position had been murky before. It had been North Korea’s long-running ally but over the recent years it has distanced itself from its neighbor. It complied with U.N. sanctions to pressure North Korea to stop its missile and nuclear tests but also opposed the United States deploying the anti-missile defense system THAAD in South Korea.
So what is China’s attitude on North Korea as conflict appears imminent?
“North Korea’s weapons programs have been supported by China—its nuclear weapons programs, its food supplies, its economy is all propped up by China. This we know. What a lot of people don’t know is that North Korea is not friendly to the current leadership. They are not friendly to Xi Jinping, especially after Kim Jong Un came into power. What they are friendly toward is the Jiang faction, the Chinese faction led by the former Chinese communist leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. The Jiang faction is working against Xi Jinping, who is currently in power. It is in Xi Jinping’s interest to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons programs and from becoming more powerful,” said Joshua Philipp, China analyst at the Epoch Times.
“China doesn’t necessarily want the U.S. deploying anti-nuclear-missile systems because it also degrades their security in terms of being able to make threats and have a voice in terms of defense, which is why it was blocking THAAD. At the same time it also serves China’s interest because they don’t want North Korea launching missiles and testing weapons and being reckless as well.”
There have been numerous reports that China is sending a large number of troops to the North Korean border. Different reasons were cited for the move. Some said it is to show support for the United States, while others think it is defending North Korea. Philipp thinks China may be bracing for an influx of refugees.
“One of the biggest concerns the Chinese government has had with North Korea, a possible regime collapse in North Korea, is a refugee crisis. They are concerned that refugees from North Korea are going to pour over their border and they’re going to have to deal with it. Then it becomes China’s problem, not North Korea’s problem. And so them moving the troops to the border looks like it’s a positive U.S.-China agreement, which if we go by the reactions of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump after their meeting, it seemed like they came to some positive solution. This appears to be the positive solution—is that China is positioning itself for a collapse of the North Korean regime. This is what it looks like, just analysis at this point. The United States, it looks like, it is going to do something. Either do something to destroy the nuclear weapons programs in North Korea, force North Korean leader to step down, it’s not clear. But something big is taking place. We can assume this,” said Philipp.
North Korean state media has said that it will launch a nuclear attack on the United States at any sign of aggression. It has continuously touted its nuclear abilities, but in reality, there is no danger of a missile reaching the United States.
“North Korea claims it has long range nuclear weapons. I don’t think they do. And defense analysts would say the same thing. You can tell the strength of their nuclear weapon tests that they’ve done before and they’re nowhere near what they say they are. It’s also very unlikely that they have anything that can have any real range to it. And if they did, the United States now has the THAAD system deployed in South Korea which can intercept these weapons,” said Philipp.
Currently, the biggest threat is to neighboring South Korea. They are unlikely to get hit by a nuclear missile, but the North might launch other attacks.
“Allegedly North Korea has in its hills all kinds of weapons systems pointed at the south. This is their biggest concern is that North Korea is going to going to lose it and just start firing at them randomly. You can intercept the big missiles. The little bombs are the ones that are harder to intercept,” said Philipp.
There is another concern still that the North Korean regime may put its own citizens on the line to stay in power.
“There is a far off possibility that North Korea may be holding its own people ransom. Foreign countries may not intervene if North Korea threatens to kill its own people. This is also something that needs to be considered, as crazy as it is. You’re dealing with a very unstable-minded leader. You’re dealing with North Korea so anything is possible,” said Philipp.
He added that there is most likely no danger to Japanese citizens. However, South Korea may need the help of Japan and the United States should the North fire at them with mortars and rockets.
Lidia Louk, Jimmy Xie for NTD Television
