Just 31 US Counties Responsible for 42 Percent of US Murders, Study Finds

Ryan Morgan
By Ryan Morgan
January 19, 2023US News
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Just 31 US Counties Responsible for 42 Percent of US Murders, Study Finds
Chicago and Evanston police investigate a crime scene after a gunman went on a shooting spree before being killed by police during a shootout in Evanston, Ill., on Jan. 9, 2021. (Ashlee Rezin Garcia/Chicago Sun-Times via AP)

Of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S., a group of 31 counties accounted for more than two-fifths of the share of all murders in the entire country in 2020, according to recent research.

The pre-print study, authored by John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), found that these 31 counties—one percent of all U.S. counties—account for about 21 percent of the U.S. population and were responsible for about 42 percent of all of the murders in the U.S. in 2020.

Lott’s study further found that the top two percent of counties — 62 counties containing 31 percent of the U.S. population — represented 56 percent of U.S. murders in 2020.

The top five percent of counties, containing 47 percent of the total U.S. population, accounted for 73 percent of murders in the United States in 2020.

Lott’s findings indicate that instances of murder in the United States are highly concentrated in large urban areas.

After this top five percent of counties with the most murders, Lott’s study found a middle block of 25 percent of counties that could account for 24 percent of murders in the country in 2020.

The study further found that 52 percent of U.S. counties, a share representing about 10 percent of the total U.S. population, had no murder cases at all in 2020.

A group of about 68 percent of U.S. counties that account for about 18 percent of the U.S. population had one or fewer murders in 2020. This block of counties represented about 2.6 percent of all murders in the U.S.

The Worst Counties

Of the 31 counties representing the top one percent of murders in the U.S., the 10 counties where murders were most highly concentrated were:

  1. Cook County, Illinois with 775 murders
  2. Los Angeles County, California with 691 murders
  3. Harris County, Texas with 537 murders
  4. Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania with 495 murders
  5. New York City, New York with 465 murders
  6. Wayne County, Michigan with 379 murders
  7. Shelby County, Tennessee with 311 murders
  8. Maricopa, Arizona with 299 murders
  9. Baltimore City, Maryland with 291 murders
  10. Dallas County, Texas with 281 murders.

Murders Increasingly Concentrated in Urban Centers

While Lott’s latest study findings indicate 73 percent of U.S. murders were concentrated in about 150 mostly densely populated counties, this observation is part of a trend of murders increasingly concentrating in urban areas.

Lott has studied how murder cases have concentrated in U.S. counties since 2010.

In 2010, the top one percent of counties accounted for 40 percent of all U.S. murders in 2010 before dipping to 38 percent in 2014 and then rising up to 42 percent in 2020.

In 2010, the top five percent of counties accounted for 71 percent of murders, while they represented 69 percent of murders in 2014 and 70 percent of murders in 2016.

Even in the counties with the highest number of murders, Lott found some evidence indicating that these murder rates are highly concentrated to a few zip codes.

Looking specifically at Los Angeles County in California, Lott’s study showed the bottom 30 percent of the zip codes in the county had no murders, and the bottom half of the zip codes were responsible for five percent of the murders. In that same city, the top 10 percent of zip codes accounted for 41 percent of the murders while the next highest 10 percent of zip codes accounted for another 26 percent of murders.

Lott also referenced a 2015 study showing that in eight cities, 25 percent of violent crime occurred on one percent of their streets and that about half occurred on five percent of their streets.

“Murder isn’t a nationwide problem,” Lott wrote in the conclusion of his study. “It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas and even in those counties murders are concentrated in small areas inside them, and any solution must reduce those murders.”

Gun Ownership

In his study, Lott also noted a 2021 Pew Research Center survey on the concentration of firearms in the United States.  That survey found that about 41 percent of residents in rural counties reported owning a firearm, compared to 29 percent who reported owning firearms in suburban areas and 20 percent who reported owning firearms in urban areas.

“Despite lower gun ownership, urban areas experience much higher murder rates,” Lott wrote. “One should not put much weight on this purely ‘cross-sectional’ evidence over one point in time, and many factors determine murder rates. However, it is still interesting to note that so much of the country has both very high gun ownership rates and zero murders.”

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