Karlyn Bowman: Democrats Will Likely Regain the House

Hongli Xu
By Hongli Xu
September 20, 2018Zooming Inshare

Simone Gao: I also discussed the prospects for this year’s midterm elections with Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow polling expert at the American Enterprise Institute. Here is what she has to say.

Karlyn Bowman: The dynamic of this midterm definitely resembles midterms of the past. The expectation is that the Republican Party will certainly lose seats this November. We don’t know what the number will be, but the ranges are very large, and much larger in many cases than the historical average. For example, some are suggesting that the Republicans could lose as many as 40 to 50 seats overall. I expect it will be lower than that, but I think it will probably certainly follow in the past historical pattern.

Simone Gao: So if that’s the case, what’s the likelihood that Democrats will take over the House?

Karlyn Bowman: Yes, the Democrats would then take over the House. They need to pick up 23 seats, and the expectation among most of the analysts at this point is that they will do that.

Simone Gao: How about the Senate?

Karlyn Bowman: The Senate is a different body, and most people think that the Republicans will maintain control of the U.S. Senate and may even possibly pick up a seat or two.

Simone Gao: According to RealClearPolitics, President Trump’s approval rating is 43 percent now. How will that impact the midterm? Will his endorsement help or hurt the candidates?

Karlyn Bowman: I think President Trump will endorse some candidates where he thinks he can make a difference, where he thinks he can make a positive impact. But I think we will not see him venturing into most House races this fall or even most Senate contests. He’s certainly a lightning rod. His support level is about 40 to 44 percent in most polls. That’s historically low at this particular time, and he’s such a lightning rod that I think that only in those districts where he could make a difference will he appear in the fall.

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