A new report confirms that the United States has experienced net negative migration in 2025.
Green cards issued outside the United States declined by over 20 percent through May 2025. Data were not available after May, but assuming a similar trend for the rest of the year, Brookings estimated that green cards issued abroad declined from about 670,000 in 2024 to between 560,000 and 575,000. The report estimated that green cards would continue to decline in 2026, reaching between 490,000 and 575,000.
Data was not available after May for non-immigrant visas—student visas and temporary work visas like H-2A and H-1B—but assuming the trend from the first half of the year continued, they also declined from 2.17 million in 2024 to an estimated 1.94–1.99 million. Assuming the Trump administration issues further travel bans and other deterrent measures, Brookings estimates the number of visas will decline to between 1.65–1.99 million in 2026.
Migrant inflows at the southern border declined to almost nothing. In 2024, the number of migrants arriving at or between ports of entry that were given humanitarian parole or a Notice to Appear (NTA) was about 1.41 million. Using complete data from border agencies, in 2025, that number dropped to between 67,000–70,000. This year, Brookings anticipates border crossings will continue to drop to between 26,000–53,000.
The number of border crossers who did not encounter any official (got-aways) dropped by more than 90 percent, from 270,000 estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to between 22,000–39,000. Brookings put this reality down to fewer attempts to cross the border illegally. It estimates that entries without inspection will be between 22,000–150,000 in 2026.
Among outflows, Brookings used data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and tax records to assume an average outmigration of 2.5 percent among immigrants who have resided in the United States for more than two years, newly-arrived green card holders, and refugees; 3 percent among border entrants under parole or an NTA; 4 percent among got-aways; and 20 percent among temporary visa holders, based on their transitioning to a new legal status or simply leaving.
Voluntary departures increased from 10,000 in 2024 to about 40,000 in 2025. And while it was difficult to assess which groups have departed, Brookings concluded that increased border enforcement would cause more outflows, between 210,000–450,000 additional departures than without stricter enforcement; that number could reach 575,000 should deportations trend upward.
The report estimated a net outmigration of between 10,000 and 295,000 for the year 2025. Assuming that the Trump Administration continued its pattern of strict border controls, Brooking estimated that migration would stay anywhere between a net loss of 925,000 to a net gain of about 185,000.
NTD News reached out to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and Customs and Border Protection for comment.