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California will face a projected $18 billion budget deficit next year.

The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office delivered the forecast on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive year the state has grappled with a budget shortfall. According to the <a href="https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091">report</a>, the state's spending grows far faster than the money coming in, a structural imbalance now compounded by new federal policies affecting California's wallet.

Federal policy changes to health care and food assistance for low-income residents will cost the state an additional $1.3 billion.

Gov. Gavin Newsom's next budget proposal, due in January, will be the final spending blueprint of his second term—and potentially his last chance to shape how the nation's most populous state allocates its resources. California governors are limited to two consecutive terms, with Newsom's final year in office ending in January 2027.

New federal tariffs and persistent high borrowing costs are dampening corporate and sales tax collections, while job growth has lagged.

"The budget condition right now has become relatively weak," said Gabriel Petek, the Legislative Analyst's Office's lead analyst, during a briefing on Wednesday.
<h2>AI Boom Lifts</h2>
One positive trend is that California has collected billions more in personal income tax than expected, driven mostly by strong investments in artificial intelligence that have pushed stock valuations to record highs and boosted compensation for tech workers. The S&P 500 has surged 50 percent over the past two years, with most gains concentrated in the handful of tech companies betting heavily on AI development.

Yet the Legislative Analyst's Office warns that assuming these trends will simply continue is risky. History suggests the stock market overreacts to major technological breakthroughs. During the dot-com era, internet stocks soared and then collapsed despite the technology ultimately proving transformative.

Today, several warning signs suggest the market may be overheated: stocks appear expensive by historical standards, investors are borrowing more to buy equities, and household stock ownership is at its highest level in at least 70 years.

The revenue gains, as they are, face an immediate squeeze. According to the Legislative Analyst's Office, constitutional requirements under Proposition 98—which governs school and community college funding—and Proposition 2—which mandates reserve deposits and debt payments—consume nearly all the revenue improvements. Over 60 percent of new revenues, about $7 billion, must flow to schools and community colleges under formula-driven increases.

This leaves little flexibility for other priorities. State leaders will confront costs rising by $6 billion beyond what was anticipated just months ago. Health care for low-income residents represents one of the largest expense categories in the state budget, making it a likely target for cuts.

Newsom last year rolled back a signature health care initiative amid a $12 billion deficit—a major setback for Democrats' goal of providing universal health care.

Immigrants living in California without legal status will no longer be eligible to enroll in the state-funded free health care program beginning next year, with some facing premium increases in 2027.

Looking further ahead, the outlook darkens considerably. California could face deficits exceeding $35 billion annually beginning in 2027 and 2028 as spending growth continues to outpace revenue growth.

State Democratic leaders have acknowledged the mounting pressure.

Senate President pro Tempore Monique Limón pledged that lawmakers will collaborate with the governor to construct "a responsible state budget that protects core programs, including education, childcare, safety net, health care, and public safety."

Republican lawmakers blamed the crisis on poor spending priorities. Republican state Senator Roger Niello stated, "The state's structural deficit continues to grow because of the majority party's unstoppable spending problems."

Lawmakers have until June to craft a balanced budget.

<em>The Associated Press contributed to this report.</em>

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