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The Federal Reserve followed through on a widely expected interest rate cut at its final policy meeting of 2025, but the Dec. 10 decision was marked by sharp dissent among officials.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September," the Fed said in a <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_251210a">statement</a>. "The recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated."

Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted to lower the policy rate by a half-point. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid supported no rate change.

While investors overwhelmingly penciled in the third consecutive reduction, there had been widening divergence among monetary policymakers heading into the meeting.

This is the first time since September 2019 that three members dissented—and for similar reasons. In 2019, then-St. Louis Fed President James Bullard wanted a half-point rate cut, while then-Kansas City Fed President Esther George and then-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren preferred to leave rates unchanged.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking to reporters at the post-meeting press conference, said the rate cut decision was a "close call."

“I could make a case for either side. It’s a close call,” Powell said. “We always hope that the data will give us a clear read. It’s a very challenging situation. I think we’re in a good place to, as I mentioned, to wait and see how the economy evolves.”

The Fed also released an <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm">update</a> to the Summary of Economic Projections, a quarterly forecast of where officials expect policy and the economy to head.

The December survey revealed policymakers anticipating one rate cut in 2026, signaling a slower pace of policy easing in the year ahead. They also penciled in a single rate cut in 2027.

Officials also shaved their inflation expectations. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index—the central bank's preferred inflation measure—is seen slowing to 2.4 percent next year, down from the September forecast of 2.6 percent. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices because of their volatility, is anticipated to ease to 2.5 percent, down from the previous projection of 2.6 percent.

Growth prospects were also revised higher. The GDP growth rate is predicted to be 2.3 percent in 2026, up from the September estimate of 1.8 percent.

The unemployment rate is predicted to be 4.4 percent next year, unchanged from the previous Summary of Economic Projections.

As for next month's meeting, the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach for future decisions based on incoming data and the evolving outlook.

“We’ll carefully evaluate that incoming data, and also, I would note that having reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last September, the fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves," Powell said.

In addition to the interest rate decision, the central bank confirmed it will restart its purchases of Treasury securities. The Fed will begin purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills—short-term securities with maturities of 4 weeks to one year—on Dec. 12.
<h2>Divergence</h2>
In recent weeks, there has been increasing divergence among Federal Reserve officials. Minutes from the October meeting and public comments have highlighted the growing divide.

One camp has supported lowering interest rates amid slowing employment conditions and concerns that keeping policy restrictive could weigh on economic growth prospects, given the lag effect of monetary policy.

The other side suggests leaving rates steady to prevent a further reacceleration of inflation, arguing that the labor market remains intact and the broader economy continues to expand.

It has become a balancing act for the U.S. central bank, and policymakers have acknowledged that the dual mandate—maximum employment and price stability—is under simultaneous threat.

Another challenge for the institution has been the lack of government economic data. The key numbers, particularly the November jobs report and November inflation figures, will be released shortly after the Fed meeting.

The nonfarm payrolls report for October and November will be published on Dec. 16. The November Consumer Price Index will come out on Dec. 18.

In positive news for policymakers, the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting">estimates</a> the annual inflation rate may have stalled at 3 percent.

Committee members will convene for the next two-day meeting on Jan. 27 and 28.

<em>From <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-at-final-meeting-of-2025-post-5956317">The Epoch Times</a></em>

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