Name: US Labor Market Rebounds in November as Economy Adds 227,000 New Jobs
Uploaded: 2024-12-07T05:40:04.000Z
Description: The U.S. labor market rebounded in November following the previous month's abysmal jobs report, which was fueled by labor strife and natural disasters.

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The U.S. labor market rebounded in November following the previous month's abysmal jobs report, which was fueled by labor strife and natural disasters.

According to the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)</a>, the economy added 227,000 new jobs last month from the upwardly revised 36,000 positions in October.

The consensus median estimate suggested an increase of 207,500 new jobs in November, above the trailing 12-month average of 181,000, according to <a href="https://insight.factset.com/total-nonfarm-payrolls-for-november-2024-are-projected-to-rise-by-207500?utm_source=Direct&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FO-12-05-2024&utm_content=httpsinsightfactsetcomtotalnonfarmpayrollsfornovember2024areprojectedtoriseby207500" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">FactSet</a>.

Year-over-year average hourly earnings were unchanged at 4 percent, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 3.9 percent. From October to November, average hourly earnings rose at a higher-than-expected pace of 0.4 percent.

Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.3 from the downwardly adjusted 34.2. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.5 percent from 62.6 percent.

Employment gains were largely concentrated in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and social assistance (19,000).

Transportation equipment manufacturing payrolls increased by 32,000. This reflected striking Boeing employees returning to work.

Retail trade declined by 28,000 jobs last month.

<span style="font-weight: 400;">The BLS's household survey portion of the November jobs report, which removes duplication in the data, showed the labor market lost </span>355,000 positions.

Full-time employment levels fell by 111,000 to 133.38 million, while part-time work dropped by 268,000 to 27.66 million.

The number of people working two or more jobs—a common trend in the post-crisis economy as households try to keep up with higher living costs—increased by 275,000 to 8.58 million.

Employment gaps between U.S.- and foreign-born workers continued to widen last month. From November 2023 to November 2024, the number of American workers decreased by nearly 1.1 million. Conversely, the number of employed foreign workers surged by 401,000.

Two months of employment revisions were published in the November payroll report. The October figures were adjusted higher by 24,000, from 12,000 to 36,000. The September statistics were revised higher by 32,000, from 223,000 to 255,000.

So far this year, downward revisions have totaled approximately 400,000.

Market watchers anticipated an improved payrolls report after the curveball that was hurled in the October employment figures.

The October jobs report was the worst employment reading since December 2020. Economists and White House officials attributed the abysmal numbers to labor strife and the hurricanes.
<h2>Market Watch</h2>
Financial markets had little reaction after the better-than-expected jobs report, with the leading benchmark indexes up by as much as 0.2 percent.

U.S. Treasury yields were red across the board. The benchmark 10-year yield fell below 4.16 percent. The 2- and 30-year yields tumbled to 4.1 percent and 4.33 percent, respectively.

The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of the greenback against a weighted basket of currencies, slipped underneath 105.60.

Bryon Anderson, the head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments, says the November jobs report should present optimism about the broader economy.

"Markets will react short term over small pieces of data, but we still feel the trends are stable enough for the underlying job market," Anderson said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. "There is a bifurcation of the consumer in the US, and the top quintiles have a greater share of income and wealth, and they are still spending which is buffeting this economy."

While job creation has softened compared to previous years, there is little evidence that there is "a disaster in the job market," Anderson said.

The latest employment snapshot should leave the door open to an interest rate cut this month, says Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

"Despite the strong headline number this morning, the Fed is likely to note the overall slowing in the job market and cut rates by 25 bps in 2 weeks, unless the next CPI report is white hot (and our base case is that CPI won’t surprise in a material way and the Fed is going to cut)," Zaccarelli said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Amid a backdrop of solid economic growth, easing inflation, and a healthy labor market, the Fed can likely keep lowering interest rates, Zaccarelli said.

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to pull the trigger on another 25-basis-point interest rate cut at this month's policy meeting. According to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">CME FedWatch Tool</a>, the futures market suggests a 60 percent chance of lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.

Fed policymakers, which have been data-dependent, are wrestling with multiple challenges, including the base effect in inflation statistics and weather-related impacts on the labor market, says Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial.

"Depending on what will hold their focus, the Fed could cut this month, then pause in January; or if they don’t cut on the 18th, they will next month. As reported earlier, markets expect the Fed to cut this month," Roach said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

The next two-day Fed meeting will be on Dec. 17–18.
<h2>Labor Data Week</h2>
Before the November employment data, a flurry of labor updates was released this week.

The October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/job-openings-resignations-unexpectedly-rise-as-us-labor-market-improves-5769969" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">showed</a> that the number of job vacancies unexpectedly climbed to 7.744 million, from a downwardly revised 7.372 million in September. Job quits also advanced to a five-month high of 3.326 million, signaling greater worker confidence to resign from a current position and find a new one.

ADP's <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">National Employment Report</a> highlighted that the private sector added a slightly smaller-than-expected 146,000 new jobs last month. The October number was significantly adjusted down to 184,000 from 233,000.

Annual wage gains for job-stayers rose for the first time in 25 months to 4.8 percent. Yearly pay increases for job changers jumped to 7.2 percent.

U.S.-based employers announced 57,727 layoffs last month, little changed from October, according to global recruitment company <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/november-2024-job-cuts-surge-auto-and-tech-industries-lead-amid-economic-pressures/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Challenger, Gray and Christmas</a>.

The automotive sector led the way, with 11,506 layoffs in November, the highest monthly increase since the more than 14,000 job cuts in April. This has been driven by various challenges facing the auto industry, including tariffs, changes in government policy, and greater competition from Chinese companies, the report concluded.

In the first 11 months of 2024, U.S. companies intended to cut more than 722,000 jobs.

The number of Americans filing applications for first-time unemployment benefits jumped last week. Department of Labor <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">data</a> show that initial jobless claims totaled 224,000 for the week ending Nov. 30, up from 213,000 in the previous week.

Continuing jobless claims—the number of individuals currently receiving jobless benefits—eased to 1.871 million from 1.896 million. The four-week jobless claims average, which removes week-to-week volatility, edged up to 218,250.

<em>From <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/us-labor-market-rebounds-in-november-as-economy-adds-227000-new-jobs-5771599">The Epoch Times</a></em>

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