The population of New York state has barely increased since 2010, having lost nearly 1.4 million people to other states, according to a report by Empire Center for Public Policy.
A shrinking population can mean and lead to many things. For one, population determines the number of congressional seats a state has. And two, it can indicate how desirable a state is—especially if said state is losing more people to domestic migration than any other.
“If you’ve got a net loss of people to other states, I think it is a key indicator of whether the climate of the state, whether the economic climate of the state, whether the affordability of the state, and whether the quality of life in a given place is attractive and is retaining people,” E.J. McMahon, author of the report and founder of Empire Center, told NTD News.
A culmination of factors are behind this decline, he added. And using data from the Census Bureau and the International Revenue Service, the report also shows where they’re going.
Florida is at the top of the list, having won over 205,000 New Yorkers. That means about 21 percent of New York’s outflow of migrants left for the Sunshine State from 2011 to 2018, taking their average income of about $90,000 with them.
McMahon said it makes sense. Unlike New York, Florida has relatively low taxes and people can save a great deal of money there—a retirement haven.
“So an older, or more mature couple, who’ve made a good living in New York, can save a lot of money on taxes by moving to Florida,” he said.
New Jersey made second, taking about 15 percent of New York’s outflow. McMahon said many of those leaving continue to work in New York, however, but choose to live in Jersey for its lower housing costs.
Less Foreign Migration
But, besides an outflow of migration, other factors are contributing to the state’s shrinking population, such as a decline in foreign migration.
New York has been a leading destination for foreign migrants over the years, which McMahon said has offset much of its loss in population. However, the Census projected that not as many foreigners added to the state’s population in 2019—a bit more than half as many as it got in 2015.
And nationally, from 2018 and 2019, the United States took in 43 percent less foreigners “from this decade’s high of 1,047,000 between 2015 and 2016,” according to the Census.
McMahon said President Donald Trump’s immigration policies may have a part in this. The president has implemented more restrictions on migrants entering the country illegally.
Overall, however, McMahon said New York has been losing many people at varying degrees going back to the early 60s. He called it a warning.
“It’s basically a message and a warning that life in New York has to become more affordable and pleasant and desirable for more people so that more of them stay here and build their lives here,” he said.
