Simulation Reveals What a 7.0 Earthquake Would Look Like in San Francisco Bay

Ilene Eng
By Ilene Eng
July 14, 2019Science & Tech
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California’s Hayward fault line is long overdue for a significant earthquake, according to experts. Accordingly, the US Geological Survey ran a simulation on the Hayward fault to help predict the consequences of a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Bay Area.

As the southwestern side of California slides up and northwestward towards Alaska compared to its northeastern half earthquakes will occur mostly along the San Andreas, the San Jacinto and Hayward Faults, and also in the Mojave Desert.

Ridgecrest, California, was once known as the earthquake capital of the world. The 7.1 magnitude earthquake in the Mojave Desert that shook the town on July 5 caused relatively minor damage. Direction matters and most of the force spread away from inhabited areas, and Ridgecrest received a glancing blow. Even so, there was significant damage to homes, businesses, and roads.

NTD Photo
Ole Kaven explains the circles represent where earthquakes occur in real-time at US Geological Survey in Menlo Park on July 8, 2019. (Ilene Eng/NTD)

Ole Kaven, is a research geophysicist in Menlo Park that specializes in the area. He said the aftershocks appear to be dying down, adding that the area has so far shown no sign of another approaching quake.

“It’s the Airport Lake Fault Zone. It has seen seismicity in the past, but this is certainly the largest earthquake on that particular fault,” said Kaven. “The Navy base that’s in the area just to the north and where most of the seismic activity is taking place has also sustained some damage. We have not received any reports of serious injuries or fatalities.”

Earthquake activity can be seen online in real-time on the USGS website. Red dots represent the last hour where an earthquake occurred, orange ones represent the previous 24 hours, and the yellow ones represent about seven days. The larger the dot or circle, the greater the intensity.

NTD Photo
USGS hopes people know how to prepare themselves for an earthquake, as shown on this poster in Menlo Park on July 8, 2019. (Ilene Eng/NTD)

According to Kaven, these quakes are of similar intensity to what they expect in the Bay Area. Earthquakes on the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas Faults would cause the most damage since they are close to urban areas. He pointed out that the Hayward Fault line runs a higher risk of experiencing a magnitude of 7 or higher earthquake.

Knowing how to respond when disaster hits decrease the risk of injury. Aside from the standard drop, cover, and hold, Kaven also recommends additional safety measures.

“Preparation for such an event, make sure you have an emergency kit at home, make sure you know where you can shut off the main gas valve. Gas lines can often rupture in the event of this type of shaking and can cause fires. Which did happen in the Ridgecrest area,” said Kaven.

Locals are urged to take precautions and educate themselves on what to do if disaster hits. They are also instructed to report the quake – this helps first responders to act more quickly in an emergency.

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That fault line hasn’t had a significant earthquake in over 150 years, and experts say it’s long overdue.

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