Labour on Course for Landslide UK Election Victory: Exit Poll

Simon Veazey
By Simon Veazey
July 4, 2024UK

Labour is on course to end 14 years of Conservative rule in a landslide victory, according to the exit poll for the UK election.

The exit poll, conducted by Ipsos UK for major British broadcasters, suggests Labour is on course for 410 seats, with the Tories reduced to 131—broadly in keeping with the predictions of polling in recent weeks.

The first of the 650 seats are likely to be declared from 11:30 p.m., with official confirmation of which party will lead the next government likely coming in the early morning.

Assuming the exit poll—which has been consistently accurate over the years—is correct, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister on Friday with a commanding majority in Parliament.

Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the election six weeks ago.

According to the exit poll, Labour would have a majority of 170, with the forecast indicating the lowest number of Tory MPs on record.

It marks a dramatic turnaround since the 2019 general election, when Boris Johnson won the Tories a healthy 80-seat majority and Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to its worst result since 1935.

The exit polling also suggests that Reform UK, with Nigel Farage now fully at the helm, will take its 13 seats.

Additionally, the poll suggested the Liberal Democrats will win 61 seats and the Green Party 2.

In Scotland, the SNP is expected to secure 10 seats with Plaid Cymru in Wales on four.

The exit poll in each of the past few elections has produced a very accurate projection of the actual result.

Exit polls are conducted at polling stations across the country, where tens of thousands of people are asked to privately fill in a replica ballot as they leave.

Polling has suggested that some key players—including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak—will lose their seats.

Other key Tory figures facing battles to keep their seats include Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Suella Braverman, Steve Baker, and Robert Jenrick.

Former home secretaries Suella Braverman and Dame Priti Patel, security minister Tom Tugendhat, and Health Secretary Victoria Atkins could survive to fight for the leadership.

It is the first General Election in which voters will need to show photographic ID to receive a ballot paper.

In his final stump speech, Mr. Sunak said Thursday represented a “pivotal moment” for the country’s future as he claimed Labour would “wield their unchecked power” to increase taxes should they secure a “supermajority.”

In a social post shared just as the exit poll was published, Sir Keir wrote, “To everyone who has campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party—thank you.”

PA Media contributed to this report

From The Epoch Times