What to Watch in Tuesday’s Elections: Cheney in Trouble While Palin Eyes Comeback

WASHINGTON—Elections in Wyoming and Alaska on Tuesday could relaunch the political career of a former Republican star and effectively end the career of another—at least for now.

Cheney’s determination to prevent former President Donald Trump from ever again serving in the White House has left her fighting to hold on to the House seat she has held for three terms. Trump has made Cheney’s ouster a top priority, endorsing a challenger and traveling to Wyoming to try to seal the deal.

In Alaska, Sarah Palin jumped on a vacancy in the state’s congressional delegation as a potential springboard back into elected office. A victory in Tuesday’s special election to fill the remaining months of the late U.S. Rep. Don Young’s term could send her to Washington as soon as next month.

Sarah Palin
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks on stage during a “Save America” rally before former President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, on July 9, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

What to watch:

Wyoming

Cheney’s work as vice chair of the Jan. 6 committee has threatened her chances of prevailing in the Republican primary in deeply red Wyoming, where Trump notched one of his most lopsided 2020 victories, capturing 70 percent of the vote compared to Joe Biden’s 27 percent.

Set to deny Cheney a fourth term as Wyoming’s lone member of the House is Harriet Hageman, a Cheyenne ranching industry attorney who won Trump’s endorsement last year.

Hageman finished in the middle of a five-way, 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary. She’s campaigned for Cheney’s House seat, appearing at county fairs, parades, and rodeos. Making his first public political appearance in Wyoming, Trump drew a crowd of at least 10,000 to a Casper rally supporting Hageman in May.

Harriet Hageman
Republican U.S. House candidate Harriet Hageman talks to a supporter at a campaign event, in Cheyenne, Wyo., on March 7, 2022. (Mead Gruver/AP Photo)

A defeat for Cheney would cap a swift political collapse in a state where her name recognition is nearly universal and her family’s political roots run deep. Her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, held the state’s House seat for 10 years until 1989.

Cheney’s best hope is that enough Wyoming Democrats will switch parties to vote for her instead of their own party’s three candidates—none of whom stands a chance in November’s general election. Even Cheney’s close allies say she might be putting principle above success in this race.

That has fueled speculation that Cheney is hoping for something bigger, and she’s refused to rule out a 2024 presidential run.

Alaska

Palin is on the ballot twice in Alaska: once in a special election to complete Young’s term and another for a full two-year House term starting in January.

Voters approved an elections overhaul in 2020 ending party primaries and instituting ranked voting in general elections. Endorsed by Trump, Palin finished first among 48 candidates to qualify for a special election. They were seeking to replace Young, who died in March at age 88, after 49 years as Alaska’s lone House member.

Palin is now trying to secure the win against the No. 2 and 4 finishers, Republican Nick Begich and Democrat Mary Peltola. The third-place vote-getter pulled out of the race after the special primary.

Tuesday’s ballot also features a House primary race and one for the U.S. Senate. Alaskans pick one candidate in each race, with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski is seeking reelection to a seat she has held for nearly 20 years. She faces 18 opponents—the most prominent of which is Republican Kelly Tshibaka, who has been endorsed by Trump.

Election 2022 What to Watch
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) smiles as she leaves the Senate chamber, at the Capitol in Washington on April 5, 2022. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

Murkowski, the state’s senior senator, is a Trump critic who voted to convict him at his impeachment trial following the Jan. 6 Capitol breach. The former president has railed against Murkowski, including at a rally with Tshibaka and Palin last month in Anchorage.

The House primary, meanwhile, has 22 candidates, including Palin, Begich, and Peltola.

Begich has tried to cast Palin as a quitter because she resigned as governor partway through her term in 2009. Palin has referred to Begich, nephew of former Democratic Alaska Sen. Mark Begich and grandson of former Democratic Rep. Nick Begich, as her “fellow ‘Republican’” in the race. Begich counters that he’s always been a Republican, despite coming from a family of prominent Democrats.