Here’s Why 2027 Social Security Payments Could Rise by 4.7 Percent

Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said 2027 Social Security benefits should rise by a 4.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), mostly due to rising inflation.

Brian O'Connell

Published: 6/20/2026, 9:21:21 PM EDT

Here’s Why 2027 Social Security Payments Could Rise by 4.7 Percent — (Mehaniq/Shutterstock)

Social Security recipients could be in line for a hefty payment boost in 2027, if one analyst’s outlook is on target.

Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said 2027 Social Security benefits should rise by a 4.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), mostly due to rising inflation.

Inflation remains high for historical norms, and it is expected to stay that way. “There’s a considerable likelihood that it’s going to climb even higher than 4.7 percent as data continues to come in, especially on the gasoline prices,” Johnson said.

Gasoline prices rose 40 percent from May 2025 to May 2026, mostly due to the Iran war, which ended last week after a new peace pact between the U.S. and Iran.

That 4.7 percent figure is significantly higher than the 3.8 percent 2027 COLA hike projected by the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group. The Social Security Administration will announce next year’s official COLA rate in October, based on the third quarter’s economic performance. In the past 10 years, the Social Security COLA figure has averaged 3.1 percent.

Four More Things To Know About the 2027 COLA Hike

Social Security experts have said there’s deeper meaning in the 2027 COLA boost, with these financial factors weighing heavily.

Politics Could Be in Play

A projected 4.7 percent increase in Social Security may sound like a win, but in reality, it's more of a signal than a solution.

“This figure simply reflects rising inflation and not an increase in true purchasing power,” Mark Clark, founding partner at Prestige Advisors, told NTD News. Clark notes the timing of a potentially bigger COLA number isn’t a coincidence.

“2027's adjustment lands the year before an election, and this issue matters enormously to a significant voting bloc,” he said. “That context is worth keeping in mind as the numbers get discussed publicly.”

It’s Not the Pay Raise You Might Think

The 4.7 percent 2027 COLA figure is an estimate from an independent analyst, not from the federal government, while the Senior Citizens League projects a more conservative 3.8 percent.

“Either way, a bigger COLA isn't good news,” Josh Katz, CPA and founder of Universal Tax Professionals in Beachwood, Ohio., told NTD. “It means inflation hurt you first, and the raise is just trying to catch you back up. Recipients got a 2.8 percent bump this year but would've needed closer to 4.7 percent just to keep pace with May's inflation. You're not getting ahead, you’re running to stand still.”

The COLA Formula Is Hardly Perfect

The SSA’s COLA formula is tied to a specific inflation gauge called the CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. “The SSA compares third-quarter CPI-W readings year over year, and that announcement typically comes in October using finalized summer data,” Katz explained.

There’s a caveat for Social Security recipients, and it’s a big one, as the CPI-W measures the spending of working people, not seniors. “Retirees spend a much bigger share on healthcare, and that's exactly where costs are climbing fastest,” Katz added. “So the formula consistently understates what older folks actually feel.”

Social Security Recipients Shouldn’t Expect Continued High COLA Rates

Whether the 2027 COLA number lands at 3.8 percent, 4.7 percent, or another figure, the elevated adjustments continue to be driven by an unusual inflationary stretch, but that’s not a permanent shift. “I'd caution anyone against treating the last few years as the new baseline,” Clark said.

It’s also worth considering that COLA’s goal is to track inflation, which means the figures are designed to help recipients keep pace rather than pull ahead. “For retirees who spent their careers operating at a high level, that's exactly why the real work happens in the strategy built around Social Security, not in the check itself,” Clark added.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the interviewees. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. NTD does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. NTD holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.