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Robust consumer spending and a rebound in exports helped the U.S. economy grow faster than economists expected, according to delayed Bureau of Economic Analysis data released on Dec. 23.

Real GDP expanded at a rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter, up from 3.8 percent in the second quarter.

Ahead of the official government release, the Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model had projected 3.5 percent growth for the July–September period. The market consensus was 3.3 percent.

The solid July–September performance was reflected by sizable gains in consumer spending (3.5 percent) and exports (8.8 percent), both marking notable accelerations from the second quarter.

Government consumption also rebounded in the last quarter, rising 2.2 percent following two consecutive quarters of contraction.

This partly offset the tepid 0.3 percent drop in gross private domestic investment. Imports, which subtract from gross domestic product calculations, also fell by 4.7 percent.

Trade has contributed to the volatility observed in the GDP data. In the first three months of 2025, the economy contracted as companies rushed to front-run the administration’s tariffs and bolster their purchases of foreign goods. Since then, trade conditions have stabilized as businesses adapt to the evolving tariff landscape.

On the inflation front, price pressures were elevated, the government said.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation climbed to 2.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Core PCE inflation, which removes food and energy, ticked up to 2.9 percent from 2.6 percent.

Both readings matched economists' expectations.

The latest GDP report signals that the U.S. economy has momentum, despite concerns about a cooling labor market.
<h2>Looking at Q4 and Beyond</h2>
While 2025 has been a turbulent year buffeted by trade uncertainty and the record-breaking government shutdown, the U.S. economy is still growing.

The fourth quarter is expected to grow by about 2 percent, according to various forecasts.

U.S. officials have <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/government-shutdown-could-end-this-week-white-house-economist-5932165">warned</a> that Washington's spending impasse will likely hit growth prospects in the October–December period.

In October, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/government-shutdown-could-cost-us-economy-14-billion-cbo-5936646">projected</a> that a six-week shutdown would cost the economy $11 billion.

Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects the United States to finish the year with a 3 percent expansion.

"The economy has been better than we thought. We’ve had 4 percent GDP growth in a couple of quarters," Bessent said in an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rVQbjknXTk">interview</a> with CBS News' "Face the Nation" earlier this month.

"We’re going to finish the year, despite the Schumer shutdown, with 3 percent real GDP growth.”

Looking ahead to the new year, BMO chief U.S. economist Scott Anderson expects much of the lost activity during the shutdown to return in the first quarter of 2026.

Real GDP growth could reaccelerate to 2.1 percent by the end of next year, he says.

"The risks around the outlook appear well balanced," he said in a Dec. 12 <a href="https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/82abedbe-75f6-4838-bd24-601fcede8ebf/">note</a>.

"On the upside, the possibility of lower tariffs, strong productivity gains, resilient consumer spending, and more Fed rate cuts. On the downside, a possible equity market pull-back, lingering inflation pressures, and a currently weak labor market leads the list of concerns."

Most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs have been implemented, and levies could be reduced if the White House negotiates new trade agreements.

The Federal Reserve ended 2025 with three quarter-point interest rate cuts. The central bank has penciled in a single rate reduction in 2026, although the futures market is betting on two to three quarter-point cuts.

Wall Street kicked off 2025 on a post-election high, experienced a springtime selloff, recovered by the summer, and embarked upon all-time highs. Heading into 2026, investors will enjoy the easing of monetary policy and grapple with whether artificial intelligence (AI) is in a bubble.

Ultimately, many economic observers and policymakers have revised their forecasts upward.

The Federal Reserve, in its December Summary of Economic Projections, <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/cut-or-pause-federal-reserve-walking-divergent-path-on-interest-rates-5959584">adjusted</a> 2026 growth to 2.3 percent from the September estimate of 1.8 percent.

But while the current administration is penciling in non-inflationary growth, consumers are still airing their grievances surrounding affordability challenges.

Consumer surveys—the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index and The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—have spotlighted the public’s growing discontent over persistent price pressures.

Bessent believes the United States will transition from affordability challenges to “prosperity” next year.

“The American people don’t know how good they have it,” he said.

“Now, Democrats created scarcity, whether it was in energy or over-regulation, that we are now seeing this affordability problem, and I think next year we’re going to move on to prosperity.”

November's annual inflation rate eased to 2.7 <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/us-annual-inflation-rate-falls-sharply-to-2-7-percent-in-november-5959870">percent</a>. Core inflation, which removes volatile energy and food prices, slowed to 2.6 percent—the lowest level since March 2021.

<em>From <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/us-economy-expands-4-3-percent-in-3rd-quarter-topping-expectations-5961556">The Epoch Times</a></em>

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US Economy Expands 4.3 Percent in 3rd Quarter, Topping Expectations