As infighting within the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) intensifies, many China watchers are wondering if Chinese leader Xi Jinping is still in power and really in control, especially of the military.
According to long-standing CCP practice, a group of generals are promoted before Army Day on Aug. 1 every year. Since many generals were reported to have been taken down or investigated in an alleged military purge over the last year, whether Xi will promote any generals or announce new appointments before Aug. 1 has attracted attention as an indication of whether he’s still in control of the military.
Meanwhile, He Weidong, one of two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, whose status in the military is second only to the other vice chairman, Zhang Youxia, disappeared from the public eye on March 11 after the closing ceremony of the third session of the National People’s Congress. He is regarded as one of Xi’s most trusted men. There have been rumors coming out of Beijing that He was under investigation.
Since two other members of the Central Military Commission—Li Shangfu and Miao Hua—were successively brought down in the two years prior, if He’s absence is officially confirmed, the number of members of the Central Military Commission will drop from seven to four.
Generals in Prison Enough to Form a Military Company
In the past 13 years since Xi became CCP leader, he has launched waves of “anti-corruption” campaigns to purge his political enemies, many of whom were in the military, to consolidate his power.Su noted that all the senior military officials purged over the last year were previously promoted to their position by Xi.
“At present, it seems that only Zhang Youxia has the power to carry out the purge, and Xi Jinping may have become a rubber stamp, otherwise, not all of them would be people from Xi’s faction,” he said.
U.S.-based China affairs observer Tang Jingyuan shares the same assessment. He told the Epoch Times on June 16 that “not only this wave of the large-scale purge is almost entirely aimed at Xi Jinping’s cronies … those replacements are all people from Zhang Youxia’s faction,” while some positions after the purge remain vacant.
“This means there might have been a huge replacement and transfer of power in the CCP’s military,” Tang said. “Once control over the military is transferred, it means that the party leader’s power base has collapsed. So now, Xi Jinping may still be the top leader in name, but in fact, he has lost control of the highest power of the CCP.”
Shen Ming-shih, director of the Division of National Security Research at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times on June 16 that such speculation is difficult to confirm as there is no public information about the power struggles within the CCP, and no way to get official clarification or proof of any internal strife either.
Possible Personnel Changes by Army Day
U.S.-based China affairs commentator Chen Pokong told The Epoch Times that this year’s Army Day will be a major point to observe who will be promoted in the military and which faction they belong to.“If they really want to add new members to the Central Military Commission on the Aug. 1 Army Day, they must be confirmed by the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP’s Central Committee, which is definitely a big fight between the Xi faction and the anti-Xi faction.”
If new members are added, it will also show which faction has the upper hand in the CCP’s infighting, Chen said.
Shen said it remains unclear which exact dates the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee will be held amid the rumors of a power struggle.
“If it is held before the end of June, the CCP’s general secretary or the Central Military Commission will have made the personnel arrangement to promote a group of generals before the Aug. 1 Army Day,” he said.
Meanwhile, Australia-based current affairs commentator Jiang Wangzheng has said that according to his source in China, the top meeting will be held on Oct. 13 to Oct. 16.
Chen said that the CCP’s personnel arrangements are opaque and that it has been very difficult for the various factions to reach an agreement.
“The internal struggles of the CCP’s top leaders may be far more fierce than the outside world imagines, and the CCP and its military are in a precarious state,” he said.