Selena Lambert Ortega, a 24-year-old from Santiago de Cuba, invited people to choose who they believed should be Cuba’s next president, in a Facebook poll posted on Jan. 12. Within hours, the post went viral.
Respondents overwhelmingly favored U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban American immigrants.
A few hours later, State Security agents in Santiago de Cuba, the island’s second-largest city, summoned Lambert Ortega and ordered her to delete the poll.
Before the post was removed, Rubio had received around 35,000 votes, while the current president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, received only 475.
What began as a simple post on social media turned into a revealing snapshot of current public sentiment, according to Ninoska Perez Castellon, a radio host and a prominent member of the Cuban exile community in Miami.
“The poll was taken off Facebook, but it shows you what the mentality is inside Cuba,” she told The Epoch Times.
When Perez Castellon visited the State Department recently, she showed Rubio the Facebook poll.
The secretary of state laughed and joked that he did not want any extra work, Perez Castellon said.
Rubio is leading negotiations with the Cuban regime and has clearly stated the U.S. position. Cuba has to change its political system “dramatically,” he told reporters on March 17, noting that the current leaders are incapable of fixing the failing economy.
“They have to get new people in charge,” Rubio said.
For decades, Havana managed to withstand the U.S. embargo on Cuba with help from the Soviet Union, which provided subsidies until its collapse in 1991.
Later, Venezuela supported the Caribbean island by supplying oil at reduced prices. This has played a critical role in Cuba’s economy for the past two decades.
In the early 2000s, Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez granted Havana access to his country’s rich oil reserves through a barter agreement that helped the island recover from its economic crisis.
Cuba received billions of dollars in crude oil and, in exchange, provided Venezuela with medical, technological, military, and intelligence support.
Following the U.S. military operation and capture of Nicolás Maduro in early January, oil shipments from Caracas were suspended.
Cuba now faces one of its most severe economic crises in decades.
Large protests erupted on the island amid frequent blackouts, severe food shortages, and limited access to medicine.
In Cuba, people are less afraid to protest, and many see that the embargo is not the main reason for their problems, Perez Castellon said.
“This is a country that is in ruins. You've seen the images of the trash piling up on the streets. You've seen people without electricity for long periods. Their food spoils,” she said.
“They have no water. They can't wash their clothes or send the kids to school. So it is a whole drama of what people are living through there.”
“The Cubans are suffering because of the regime that they have had there for decades. There is no doubt about it,” said Tomas Pojar, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute's Center on Europe and Eurasia and former national security adviser to the Czech government.
“The regime is trying to place all the blame on others, but the fact is that it is a dysfunctional, oppressive regime, as it has always been since the beginning.”
According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), Cubans are fleeing the country in large numbers.
US Demands Sweeping Changes
Rubio, when asked if he would support easing the embargo on Cuba, pointed to the 1996 Helms–Burton Act.“Suffice it to say, the embargo is tied to political change on the island,” Rubio said. “The embargo's codified.”
The Helms–Burton Act, signed by President Bill Clinton, strengthened U.S. sanctions on Cuba and codified the embargo into law.
As a result, no president can unilaterally lift the sanctions until specific conditions are met.
The conditions stated in the law include releasing all political prisoners, legalizing political parties and a free press, and holding “free and fair elections” under international supervision.
Although Rubio has not publicly outlined the Trump administration's demands, his emphasis on the law clearly signals U.S. demands in the ongoing negotiations, according to John Suarez, executive director at the Center for a Free Cuba in Washington.
“There are two possibilities for the United States: Congress repeals the law, or the regime fulfills those conditions to have the sanctions lifted,” Suarez said.
“There's wiggle room to try to improve relations in certain areas, but fundamentally, the embargo does not go away until those conditions are met.”
Other provisions of the law call for progress toward a market-based economy and the establishment of an independent judiciary system. The law also requires compensation for U.S. properties confiscated on the island.
Following the 1959 Cuban Revolution, Fidel Castro’s government confiscated more than $1.9 billion in U.S. assets, including land, refineries, and factories.
The amount is roughly equal to $9 billion in today’s dollars, according to estimates.
Nearly 6,000 individuals and companies are now seeking compensation from the Cuban regime.
The law also requires that Cuba be governed by a “democratically elected government,” which specifically excludes the Castro brothers—Fidel and Raul Castro.
Fidel Castro died in 2016 at age 90.
Raul Castro, 94 and a former Cuban president, is still alive. He and his grandson, Raulito Castro, are reportedly involved in talks with the United States.
In Cuba, Raulito is known as "El Cangrejo," or the crab, and works as his grandfather’s bodyguard. He has drawn criticism for his reportedly lavish lifestyle.
Trump Pursues ‘Friendly Takeover’
In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has suggested that Cuba might be next, after U.S. forces captured Maduro in Caracas on Jan. 3 and initiated strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.However, on several occasions, he said that he is pursuing a “friendly takeover” of the island.
He also said he would have the “honor of taking Cuba.”
“That's a big honor," he told reporters on March 16. "They're a very weakened nation right now.”
Trump did not clarify what he meant by taking the island.
In a recent post on X, Diaz-Canel reacted to Trump’s remarks.
“The U.S. publicly threatens Cuba almost daily,” he wrote on March 17.
“They intend and announce plans to seize the country, its resources, its properties, and even the very economy they seek to strangle to make us surrender."
The Spanish nonprofit Prisoners Defenders estimated there were 1,214 political prisoners in Cuba as of February.
While releasing some prisoners is a good start, all political prisoners must be freed, as required by the Helms–Burton Act, according to experts.
Cuba currently does not allow any legal opposition parties, and opposition figures who could gain support are often killed or put in prison. Hence, releasing prisoners is a significant step toward ensuring free and fair elections and supporting a democratic transition in Cuba, Suarez said.
Perez Castellon agreed, noting that Cuba’s opposition remains fragmented, unlike in Venezuela.
“In Venezuela, Maria Corina Machado had a whole movement behind her,” she said.
In Cuba, however, dissidents mostly act independently and operate in small groups.
U.S. officials, including Rubio, have spoken with some opposition members in Cuba, but there is no unifying figure comparable to Corina Machado, she said.
