Social Security Payments Could Rise 3.5 Percent or More in 2027

The projected 3.5 percent adjustment would add approximately $73 per month, raising that average benefit to about $2,159.

Kelly McBride Ni

Published: 8/12/2026, 11:08:26 PM EDT

Social Security Payments Could Rise 3.5 Percent or More in 2027 — (Rix Pix Photography/Shutterstock)

Social Security recipients could receive a larger benefit increase in 2027, with two advocacy groups now forecasting a cost-of-living adjustment of 3.5 percent to 3.6 percent following the release of July inflation data.

AARP estimates benefits will rise 3.5 percent, while The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) projects a 3.6 percent adjustment. Both forecasts top the 2.8 percent COLA that took effect in 2026. However, the official increase won’t be known until October.

Although the AARP and TSCL forecast similar Social Security increases for 2027, each group estimates a different average monthly benefit for retired workers.

AARP uses an average retired worker benefit of about $2,086. Its projected 3.5 percent adjustment would add approximately $73 per month, raising that average benefit to about $2,159.

TSCL uses a lower average benefit of $1,937.53. Its projected 3.6 percent adjustment would add $69.75, raising that payment to $2,007.28. Its estimated dollar increase is smaller than AARP’s despite its higher percentage because it is applied to a lower starting amount.

Using the same $2,086 benefit for both estimates, AARP’s 3.5 percent forecast means about $73 more per month, while TSCL's 3.6 percent forecast means about $75 more. That would bring the average payment to $2,159 with AARP’s estimate or $2,161 with the league’s.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Aug. 12 that consumer prices rose 3.4 percent over the year ending in July, easing slightly from 3.5 percent in June. In the last year, food prices increased 3 percent, while energy costs jumped 14.7 percent. The CPI-W, the inflation measure used to calculate Social Security’s annual benefit increase, also rose 3.4 percent.

Social Security calculates the annual COLA by comparing the average CPI-W reading for July, August, and September with the average from the same period one year earlier. August and September figures could still push the final COLA adjustment higher or lower.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how food and especially energy prices will play out over the next two months,” AARP Vice President for Financial Security Rich Johnson said. “This is not set in stone.”

TSCL also pointed to sharp inflation swings as a key source of uncertainty. "One of the wildcards in this year's forecast has been inflation's volatility. It started the year at 2.2%, then surged to 4.4% by May before falling back to 3.5% in June," said Shannon Benton, executive director at TSCL.

Meanwhile, Benton said seniors do not experience inflation as a percentage on a chart.

“They experience it at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, in their insurance premiums and when they pay the rent. That’s why the size of the COLA matters, but so does how accurately it reflects their real-world expenses,” she said.

The government is scheduled to release the final inflation figure needed to calculate the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment on Oct. 14. The increase will begin with benefit payments issued at the start of the new year in January.