Trump's 2024 Poll Numbers Mostly Steady After Federal Indictment: Quinnipiac

Published: 6/14/2023, 10:18:34 PM EDT

Trump's 2024 Poll Numbers Mostly Steady After Federal Indictment: Quinnipiac — Former President Donald Trump greets supporters during a campaign rally at Minden-Tahoe Airport in Minden, Nev., on Oct. 8, 2022. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Support for Donald Trump's 2024 presidential run has held relatively steady despite a new federal indictment alleging he mishandled classified documents, and lied to and obstructed federal investigators.

Trump, the former president and leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, first announced he was facing federal charges in a June 8 post on his Truth Social media account. Quinnipiac University conducted a poll from June 8 to 12, providing a glimpse of public opinion in the days following Trump's indictment.

When asked who'd they'd support if the Republican presidential primary were held today, 53 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning poll respondents said Trump is still their preferred candidate. That number marks a three-point drop from a May 18-22 survey, when 56 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning respondents said they'd support Trump in the primary.

In the latest survey, 23 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning respondents said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the second-place 2024 Republican primary candidate. DeSantis took a two-point drop from the survey in late May.

Former Republican South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) were in a three-way tie for a distant third place in the latest survey, with each candidate holding 4 percent support among respondents. Haley gained one point since the late-May result, while Pence and Scott each gained two.

2024 General Election

Trump's poll numbers faltered only slightly in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup against President Joe Biden. The latest survey found Biden leading Trump 48 percent to 44 percent among a survey of all voters despite all the negative publicity that Trump receives. Biden led the late May Quinnipiac survey match-up against Trump by 48 percent to 46 percent overall.

Among swing voters, the number of Republicans favoring Biden over Trump in 2024 has grown from 2 percent to 6 percent since May, while the number of Democrats supporting Trump over Biden has grown from three percent to five percent in that same time.

Independent voters preferred Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent; a two-point drop for Trump since May.

The May Quinnipiac survey found DeSantis beating Biden in a 2024 general election matchup 47 percent to 46 percent. Quinnipia's latest poll did not include a new Biden-DeSantis matchup.

Trump's Favorability

The latest Quinnipiac poll also assessed Trump's favorability among voters. In all, 37 percent of respondents considered Trump favorably in the latest poll compared to 59 percent who considered him unfavorably. That marks a six-point shift since late May, when 40 percent of respondents regarded Trump favorably and 56 percent regarded him unfavorably.

Biden's favorability grew by three points over that same period, to 42 percent favorability. The number of poll respondents who viewed Biden unfavorably held steady at 54 percent between May and June.

DeSantis' favorability rating fell seven points in the latest poll. In late May, 34 percent of poll respondents viewed the Florida governor favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. In the latest poll, 33 percent of poll respondents viewed DeSantis favorably and 48 percent viewed him unfavorably.

Other Polls Show Trump Gaining Support

While the new Quinnipiac poll showed a slight drop in support for Trump since May, the former president has pointed to other polls showing that his support has grown.

“As far as this joke of an indictment, it’s a horrible thing. It’s a horrible thing for this country,” Trump said at a June 10 rally. “I mean, the only good thing about it is it’s driven my poll numbers way up. Can you believe it?”

At the June 10 rally, Trump cited polling leads in the Morning Consult and Clarity Campaign GOP polls.

"In this week's Morning Consult poll that just came out, we lead the field by 34 points, with Trump at 56 to DeSanctimonious [DeSantis] at 22, Pence at seven, Haley at three," Trump said on Saturday.

The latest Morning Consult poll now shows Trump at 59 percent to DeSantis at 19 percent. The same poll also showed Trump tied with Biden in a general election match-up, whereas he trailed Biden by two points the week prior.

The idea that the federal indictment could boost Trump’s 2024 prospects is not unprecedented. In the four days after he was indicted in a Manhattan court in April, the Trump campaign reportedly raised $8 million and saw a boost in GOP primary polls.