The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2026, citing a surge in investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
The fund trimmed its 2027 forecast slightly, edging it down by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2 percent.
The upward revision for 2026 is driven in part by heavy spending on data centers, advanced semiconductors, and power infrastructure needed to support AI systems, the IMF said.
US Growth
U.S. growth accelerated to an annualized 4.3 percent pace through much of 2025. The boost helped offset the drag from a 43-day federal government shutdown that began in October and that weighed on activity in the fourth quarter before a rebound in early 2026, the fund said.Tech-related categories contributed 4.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, offsetting declines elsewhere, the bank said. Hardware led the surge, with investment in computers and related equipment up 41 percent from a year earlier, reflecting strong demand for servers and graphics processing unit systems.
The bank said the investment boom has been driven by large technology “hyperscalers,” including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, which are projected to allocate a combined $342 billion to capital spending in 2025, a 62 percent increase from the previous year.
Private firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also investing heavily to support advanced AI model development.
From a GDP perspective, JPMorgan said the overall impact of AI investment remains modest but is likely to grow. Official data mainly capture early spending on chips, servers, and networking gear.
A next phase, focused on power plants and grid upgrades, is beginning but will take years to show up fully in the data, the bank said.
Global inflation has been largely steady, the IMF said, with headline and core rates flat and in some cases slightly lower than expected.
In the United States, however, the high cost of living remains the most important concern cited in household surveys, the fund said. One-year-ahead inflation expectations are still elevated, and input prices reported in manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes remain high, helping explain the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.
Despite those pressures, the fund said that U.S. growth in 2026 will be supported by fiscal policy, a lower policy rate, and the gradual waning of the impact from higher trade barriers.
Looking further ahead, the IMF expects U.S. growth to remain solid at 2.0 percent in 2027. A near-term fiscal boost from tax incentives for corporate investment under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 is expected to support activity, the fund said.
Global Growth
On the global stage, economic growth continues to show “notable resilience,” according to the IMF, despite U.S.-led trade disruptions and elevated uncertainty.Projections are broadly unchanged from a year earlier, suggesting the global economy has shaken off the immediate impact of recent tariff shocks, the fund said.
The IMF attributed the resilience to easing trade tensions, stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus, accommodative financial conditions, and companies' ability to adapt supply chains. Improved policy frameworks in several emerging market economies have also played a role, it said.