Unemployment Claims Climb Above Estimates to Highest Since February

The number of Americans filing for state unemployment benefits climbed above economists’ expectations, jumping last week to the highest level since February.

Initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 229,000 for the week ending June 6, according to new Department of Labor figures released on June 11.

This was firmly above the consensus forecast of 219,000.

Weekly claims typically rise at this time of the year as various states permit non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the summer holiday.

The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, edged higher to 219,000. This is still hovering around historically low levels, marking the job market’s low-fire climate.

Continuing jobless claims—a measure of unemployed individuals currently receiving benefits—increased to 1.795 million from 1.771 million in the previous week. This represented the highest level since early April.

Economists rely on claims data to provide up-to-date insights into the labor market.

While job creation has been concentrated in a handful of industries over the past year, hiring has broadened, said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

“The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season,” Richardson said in a statement.

The payroll processor reported private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 23.

But a new small business survey suggests personnel plans have flattened.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported that hiring plans and job openings have eased to their lowest levels in six years. Small business owners cited labor quality, payroll costs, and inflation as their top problems.

“More small business owners are struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices, which are more challenging for small businesses to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors,” Bill Dunkelberg, the group’s chief economist, said in the June 9 report.

The Federal Reserve’s recent Beige Book—a periodic summary of economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts—reiterated the “low-hire, low-fire environment,” and that employees are “increasingly reluctant to change jobs because of economic uncertainty.”

“Hiring remained selective and primarily focused on critical roles or attrition replacement,” the report stated.

“Professional services occupations had mixed demand conditions, partly reflecting shifts in technological and operational changes.”

Despite geopolitical strife and renewed inflationary pressures, the labor market is holding steady.

The St. Louis Fed analysis on unemployment flows shows little change in the past. This measure examines a broad array of developments, including workers finding jobs, people entering the labor force, and discouraged workers exiting the job market.

In the final three months of 2025, the economy lost 116,000 jobs. The country then saw almost zero job growth in January and February.

The May jobs report should soothe these fears of a deteriorating labor market, said Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.

“Job growth has averaged 114,000 per month so far this year, which almost certainly exceeds the pace needed to keep up with entrants to the workforce,” Adams said in an emailed note to The Epoch Times.

Chair Kevin Warsh told lawmakers during his April Senate confirmation hearing that the metrics suggest the economy is at full employment.

At the same time, this could also fuel expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates.

The Fed will convene its two-day policy meeting on June 16. The meeting will also feature updates to the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot-plot—a quarterly forecast of the economy and policy.

“The June Dot Plot will likely signal more FOMC members think the central bank’s next move should be a hike, rather than a cut (Just one member thought this back in March),” Adams said.

“Even so, the Fed is unlikely to signal a hike is imminent, and the many crosswinds buffeting the economy could change the Fed’s thinking by the time they are ready to act.”