A United States Army soldier involved in the planning and execution of the mission to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has been charged with using that inside knowledge to place bets on a prediction market, the U.S. Department of Justice said on April 23.
Authorities allege Gannon Ken Van Dyke used advance knowledge of Maduro’s removal to make more than $400,000 from wagers tied directly to the operation.
Van Dyke had access to sensitive, nonpublic details about the U.S. military operation while actively participating in it. Prosecutors say he used that information to place a series of bets on Polymarket, a site where users trade against each other on the likelihood of real-world events.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a press release. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”
Federal prosecutors said the bets aligned with the timeline of a classified U.S. operation. At the time, Polymarket showed roughly a 6 percent to 8 percent chance that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power.
Operation Absolute Resolve was launched Jan. 3. The Department of War said it was a joint military and law enforcement mission and was the result of months of planning and rehearsal involving U.S. joint forces—including special operations forces—from multiple service branches.
“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York said in a press release. “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.”
News media reported in January that an unidentified person waged $32,000 that Maduro would be out of power by the end of January, and that the person profited by $400,000 on the bet. Speculation spread at the time about whether that anonymous bettor had inside knowledge.