The analysis, authored by former congressional counsel George Fishman and based on U.S. State Department monthly visa data, tracks F-1 student visas issued between May and August. This timeframe represents the critical window when approximately three-quarters of all student visas are processed ahead of the upcoming academic year.
“These declines, if sustained, will greatly benefit American students and our national security,” Fishman said in the report.
Data from the Institute of International Education shows that India and China together accounted for 53 percent of the nearly 1.18 million foreign post-secondary students in the United States during the 2024–2025 academic year, with Indian students making up 31 percent and Chinese students comprising 23 percent.
Among these figures, the number of students from China at U.S. universities had skyrocketed. As recently as 2008-09, they accounted for only 15 percent of all foreign students; in 1994-95, only 9 percent; and in 1984-85, only 3 percent.
However, during the May through August 2025 window, visa approvals for students from both countries fell significantly below 2024 levels as well as multi-year historical averages.
For Indian nationals, the United States issued 22,149 F-1 visas during these four months, marking a 62 percent drop from the 58,694 issued during the same period in 2024 and a 60 percent decline compared to the pre- and post-pandemic baseline average of 55,717.
Meanwhile, visas issued to Chinese nationals totaled 40,034 during the same period, representing a 34 percent decline from the 61,075 issued in 2024 and a 46 percent drop from the multi-year average of 73,853.
The sharp drop in student visas directly restricts the pipeline for Optional Practical Training and its extension for science, technology, engineering, and math fields.
These post-graduate work programs allow foreign students to remain and work in the United States for up to 36 months following graduation. During the 2024–2025 academic year, 70 percent of the nearly 295,000 graduates participating in Optional Practical Training were from India or China. Similarly, citizens of India and China accounted for 68 percent of the 165,524 foreign graduates authorized under the specialized science and engineering extension in 2024.
Because international graduates participating in post-study work programs maintain student status for federal tax purposes, employers are exempt from paying federal payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare. This exemption saves companies roughly 7.65 percent in labor costs compared to hiring domestic graduates.
Beyond labor considerations, the report ties the reduction in Chinese student admissions to national security and intelligence concerns.
“Reductions in the number of PRC [Chinese] students coming to U.S. colleges and universities will reduce the overall level of espionage and technology theft on campus and will be to the benefit of U.S. national security,” Fishman said.