Social Security recipients could find out the size of their 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, as early as Oct. 14, when the government releases the final inflation data used to calculate next year’s increase. Current estimates suggest a raise between 3.5 percent and 3.6 percent.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Oct. 14. This report provides the final of three monthly inflation readings needed to determine the 2027 Social Security COLA. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is then expected to announce the adjustment shortly after the data is available.
As of Aug. 12, the Senior Citizens League
estimated the increase will be 3.6 percent, up from the 2.8 percent adjustment beneficiaries received for 2026. This would be the largest COLA since the
8.7 percent increase in 2022.
AARP projected a slightly lower estimate of 3.5 percent. For the average retired-worker benefit of $2,085.98 in July, that would mean an increase of about $73 per month, raising the average payment to roughly $2,159.
However, the final figure remains uncertain, as two inflation reports remain before the final adjustment can be calculated. The COLA calculation requires inflation reports from July, August, and September, and August and September data have not yet been released.
The government will release August figures on Sept. 11, followed by September data on Oct. 14,
according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Those readings will join July’s data in determining the final COLA, so current projections could still change before the official announcement.
The
annual COLA is based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The government compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September to the same period a year earlier. The final percentage is then rounded to the nearest tenth.
The CPI-W, the inflation measure used to calculate Social Security’s annual adjustment, increased 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in July. Separately, food prices rose 3 percent from a year earlier, while energy prices increased 14.7 percent,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Annual COLAs are designed to protect the buying power of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments as prices rise,
according to the administration. The 2027 increase will take effect in January.
The announcement comes as concerns grow over Social Security’s long-term finances.
Trustees project the retirement and survivors trust fund will run out of reserves in late 2032 without congressional action. Payroll taxes and other revenue would still cover about 78 percent of scheduled benefits at that time, so payments would not stop entirely.
The September 2025 inflation
report was released on Oct. 24, 2025, after a federal government shutdown delayed the original Oct. 15, 2025, release. The Social Security Administration announced the 2.8 percent cost-of-living adjustment later that day.
