Nine months of strong sales helped buoy the U.S. auto industry for much of 2025, but headwinds from swirling tariff policies and the expiration of a substantial federal tax credit for new electric vehicles (EVs) at the end of September led to a slump in sales in the fourth quarter.
Regardless of the turbulence, it was a good year overall for new vehicle sales, said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough.
“The fourth quarter is showing the expected slowdown, as headwinds from tariffs, inflation, and reduced EV incentives weigh on the market after nine surprisingly strong months,” he said. “Still, consumer demand has kept the new-vehicle market healthy throughout 2025.”
With a 17.3 percent total market share, General Motors is projected to lead U.S. automakers in sales in 2025. The company’s projected 2.83 million new vehicle sales would mark a 5.1 percent increase from 2024.
Toyota Motor North America is expected to post the second-highest U.S. sales total in 2025, with more than 2.52 million new vehicles sold—an estimated 8.4 percent increase from a year earlier. Ford Motor is projected to rank third, with nearly 2.2 million vehicles—up about 5.6 percent from 2024—while Hyundai Motor North America is forecast to place fourth with roughly 1.84 million units, an increase of nearly 8 percent.
Honda recorded a modest 0.6 percent increase in sales, while most other automakers saw sales soften and their market share shrink in 2025, Cox said.
Looking ahead, businesses are expected to rein in fleet purchases, which will likely dip 6.1 percent in 2026 due to slow job growth, Cox noted. Lease volume is projected to tumble more than 12 percent, while used car sales are forecast to dip about 1 percent.
Lingering uncertainty surrounding interest rates and federal monetary policy could continue to cast a pall over auto sales volume in the new year, Cox added.