Before President Donald Trump can deliver on his promise of $2,000 rebate checks to most Americans, his administration must overcome a funding gap and a looming Supreme Court decision that could slash available revenue.
Federal law directs all tariff revenue into the general fund, meaning Congress must pass legislation authorizing the rebate program before any checks reach Americans.
Republican Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama, during an appearance on the same Fox segment as Bessent, said Congress should examine "these types of things and how we can make sure that the American people have more of their hard-earned money back in their pocket.”
That price tag reaches roughly twice the $240 billion in tariff revenue projected for 2026.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, disputed concerns about inadequate funding during a Nov. 14 briefing.
The administration is "actively studying the matter and getting the numbers straight, so the president has all the choices he needs to decide what to do," Hassett said.
Meanwhile, the financing picture depends on how the Supreme Court rules in a pending case examining Trump's authority to impose tariffs through the 1970s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Most of Trump's import duties rely on IEEPA as their legal justification. If justices determine those tariffs are unlawful, businesses that paid them would receive refunds, substantially reducing revenue available for rebate checks.
Trump defended his position on Nov. 11, arguing that revenue estimates presented to the court significantly understate actual collections.
The rebate program also competes with other uses for tariff revenue. Republicans' tax cut and spending legislation passed earlier this year relied on those funds to reduce the bill's overall cost.
Trump has additionally pledged to use tariff money to pay down the $37 trillion national debt.
Yale Budget Lab's analysis found the rebate program would increase the debt-to-GDP ratio by approximately 1.5 percentage points in 2035, rising from a projected baseline of 118.5 percent.
Despite the large cost, economic effects would be relatively muted, according to Yale Budget Lab's modeling.
The rebates would boost GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and increase employment by 0.15 percentage points, but these gains would prove temporary and disappear within several years.
Inflationary pressures would remain minimal, with annual inflation rising less than 0.1 percentage points over the next few years and cumulative price level impact reaching about 0.2 percent after a decade.
Trump announced the proposal on Nov. 10, suggesting payments target lower- and middle-income Americans. He told reporters that distribution would occur "probably by the middle of next year, maybe a little bit later than that”.
Bessent has indicated the program would include an income limit and serve "working families," but exact thresholds remain undetermined. He provided an example suggesting families earning less than $100,000 annually could qualify, though no such decision has been made.